By Parv Badjatiya · 2026-06-26

Kota Rainfall Crashes 70%, Sowing at 3% — El Niño Hits India's Fodder Belt

The El Niño / weak-monsoon concern that dairy executives warned about last week is now showing up in real ground-level data. Kota district in Rajasthan — one of India's largest soybean and pulse belts — has received only 77.7 mm of rainfall by June 23, compared to 253.4 mm in the same period last year. That's a 70% deficit. Sowing across all kharif crops is at just 3% of target.

The numbers come from a front-page report in Dainik Bhaskar Kota edition on 26 June 2026, with crop-sowing data sourced from the district agriculture department and rainfall figures from the Indian Meteorological Department. The story matters far beyond Kota — what happens in this district directly shapes the soybean, maize, and oilseed supply that ends up in cattle feed mills nationally.

What the numbers actually say

Three data points define the story:

1. Rainfall: 77.7 mm vs 253.4 mm

By June 23, Kota district had received 77.7 mm of cumulative rainfall this year. Last year, the same period showed 253.4 mm — roughly 3.3× more. That's not a minor seasonal variation; it's a structural deficit that has already eaten into the planting window.

Kota's long-term average annual rainfall is 1,303.4 mm, with about 90% delivered in the June–September monsoon. Getting only ~6% of the annual total by late June means farmers are already a meaningful number of days behind schedule.

2. Monsoon arrival: delayed past the historical norm

The monsoon's average arrival date for Kota is June 25. Last year it arrived even earlier, on June 18. This year it has not arrived yet.

A look at the last decade's arrival dates (per the Dainik Bhaskar report):

The IMD's Bhopal regional office expects the monsoon to enter eastern Madhya Pradesh and parts of Rajasthan in the next week — meaning early July 2026 at the earliest. That puts this year alongside 2014 (July 3) and 2019 (July 2) as the latest monsoon arrivals in the past decade.

3. Sowing collapse — only 3% of target completed

The most economically significant number. Crop-wise sowing progress in Kota district as of June 25, 2026 (in hectares):

The two numbers that should grab any feed buyer's attention:

• Soybean is at 1% of the 175,000-hectare target. Kota is one of India's largest soybean districts. If soybean sowing slips by 2–3 weeks, the soybean meal market in October–December will tighten meaningfully.
• Maize at 3% of target. Smaller scale than soybean in Kota specifically, but the broader maize belt is following similar patterns. The UP MSP scheme from earlier this month already signalled tightness in maize supply; a weak monsoon makes that worse.

Why this matters for India's cattle feed industry

Kota is not just any agricultural district — it sits at the heart of the kharif soybean belt that anchors India's protein cake supply. Soybean from Kota goes to crushing mills in Madhya Pradesh, becomes soybean meal, and ends up in Type-1 compound cattle feed for high-yielding dairy operations across the country.

A 2–3 week delay in soybean sowing translates roughly to:

• Harvest pushed from late September to mid-October (best case)
• Lower yields because pod-filling happens in cooler late-season conditions
• Soybean meal supply tightening from October–December (feed mill restocking season)
• Soybean meal prices likely firmer through Q4 2026 (current ₹59–60/kg could push toward ₹65+ if the deficit doesn't fix)

Maize is on a similar trajectory. With UP MSP procurement at ₹24/kg (covered earlier this month) already pulling supply off the open market, a deficit kharif maize crop would compound the pressure.

The El Niño mechanism — explained by an environmental scientist

Dr Gulshan Sharma, an environmental scientist quoted in the Dainik Bhaskar report, attributes the rainfall deficit to El Niño:

"The main reason rainfall is decreasing is El Niño formed in the Pacific Ocean. The Indian subcontinent is warming more than normal in summer. The Tibetan plateau is warming and warm-air patterns from the Indian Ocean are strengthening — together these weaken the southwest monsoon flow. June 2026 has seen the monsoon's pace stay below normal, and El Niño is the main driver."

The cascade from a Pacific Ocean temperature anomaly to your local feed mill's procurement price isn't intuitive. The diagram below traces the five stages:

The diagram applies directly to what Kota's data is showing. Stage 1 (El Niño) and Stage 2 (weak monsoon) are now observable on the ground in Kota. Stages 3 (fodder shortage) and 4 (milk supply drop) are 4–8 weeks ahead. Stage 5 (consumer milk price rise) is the 3–4% July hike Parag Milk Foods warned about.

Reservoir data: the silver lining

The major reservoirs in the Chambal basin (which supplies water to Kota and surrounding districts) are still close to full capacity. Per the same Dainik Bhaskar report (water levels in million cubic feet, MCFT):

Translation: drinking water and irrigation water from these large reservoirs is not immediately at risk. The problem is purely a timing-of-rainfall problem for kharif sowing — crops planted in June need monsoon water in July and August, not water stored elsewhere.

Smaller local reservoirs and ponds tell a different story — most are running 6–10% of capacity (Mandana at 77 MCFT vs 934.5 capacity, Khatauli at 127 vs 1,689). These directly support local fodder cultivation and groundwater recharge, and their depletion compounds the local sowing crisis.

What feed buyers and dairy farmers should do this week

The right actions depend on your role in the supply chain. For each:

1. 1
   Feed mills: lock in 60-day soybean meal inventory now

   Don't wait for the monsoon update. At current ₹59–60/kg, soybean meal is relatively cheap vs the August–October scenario. Sixty days of forward purchase at current prices is cheap insurance.

2. 2
   Dairy farms: book Q3 compound feed contracts early

   Many compound feed dealers offer 30-90 day contracts. Lock the price now while uncertainty is high but real spike hasn't arrived.

3. 3
   Farmers in monsoon-deficit areas: switch to drought-tolerant fodder

   If your region is also under monsoon-deficit (Rajasthan, Gujarat, parts of Maharashtra), consider switching to bajra (pearl millet) or jowar (sorghum) fodder instead of maize-only. Both are far more drought-tolerant. See our silage making guide for storage of any monsoon-rescue fodder you can grow.

4. 4
   High-yield dairies: stretch concentrate with hydroponic green fodder

   If feed costs do rise, the hydroponic green fodder system becomes far more economical. A 100 sq ft setup produces 50 kg/day of fresh fodder year-round, independent of rainfall. Setup cost ₹15,000–30,000 pays back faster in a drought year.

5. 5
   Watch the IMD's monsoon update on 1 July

   The IMD's monthly monsoon performance report drops at the start of every month. The July 1 report will tell us whether the IMD is still calling for "normal" monsoon or has downgraded to "below normal." That's the single most important data point for the next 60 days of feed price decisions.

What to watch in the next 14 days

Three specific data points will tell us whether the Kota scenario is the start of a broader trend or just a single-district anomaly:

1. Monsoon arrival date in Kota — currently expected first week of July. Each additional week of delay knocks 5–10% off the kharif crop.
2. Soybean meal wholesale price — we track this daily on the soybean meal price page. A move above ₹65/kg would mean the market is pricing in the Kota-style scenario across India.
3. IMD monsoon performance update on 1 July — the official forecast. Either confirms or downgrades the "normal monsoon" expectation.

The bigger picture

The data from Kota is a single district's reading — but it's the kind of single district reading that tends to be representative. Most of central and northern India is monsoon-dependent in roughly the same way. If Kota is at 30% of normal rainfall by June 23, similar districts across MP, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, and Gujarat are likely seeing comparable shortfalls.

The dairy industry's split response we covered last week — Parag Milk Foods warning of a 3–4% July hike vs Amul's wait-and-watch — is starting to resolve in favour of the warning side. The hard data from Kota is the kind of evidence that nudges even cautious players (like Amul) to start reviewing their procurement assumptions.

Feed mills, dairy farmers, and feed-ingredient traders who position now have a 4–8 week head-start over those who wait for the issue to become unambiguous. The cost of being early-and-wrong is small. The cost of being late-and-right is large.

Source

This article is based on the front-page report in Dainik Bhaskar Kota edition, 26 June 2026 ("रूठो मत मानसून..."), with sowing data attributed to the Kota district agriculture department and rainfall figures from the Indian Meteorological Department. The El Niño quote is from Dr Gulshan Sharma, environmental scientist, as reported by Dainik Bhaskar. Crop hectare data and reservoir levels are reproduced from the published tables; year-on-year comparisons are computed by cattlefeed.info. Original analysis on cattle feed implications is cattlefeed.info's interpretation of the data using our daily price tracker and existing monsoon dairy management guide.